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The most interesting development of all this was when, on September 17, the S&P 500 plunged 7.8% in just minutes. The market was already experiencing a bit of what was to come. The market had been falling all week. But it had not yet completed its full recovery from the portfolio insurance and margin call effects. That event was the beginning of the market recovery from the portfolio insurance and margin call effects. As noted above, the market did not recover very well, but it recovered. There were a number of other days during the last week of September where the market was down as much as 7% and, again, the market did not recover very well.
Then, in an act of utter desperation, the portfolio insurance players hit the panic button. The number of buys was greatly diminished on Friday. The market then rebounded somewhat on Monday, only to fall more sharply on Tuesday. Some of the days on Tuesday were the steepest declines since the late 1990s. The recovery was shorter than that of the market since the crisis of 2008, and the market had not yet fully unwound the portfolio insurance and margin call effects.
The current stock market debacle shares many of the same characteristics. As the US government continues to insist that it will not let down its guard, no one is buying risk. The margin calls are being met, but without anyone to sell to, the mutual fund redemptions are accelerating. Since the stock market is priced in the futures contracts, and since the futures contracts are currently in backwardation, this means that the implied volatilities are rising. If long-term volatilities are rising, then the volatility of implied volatilities (where the market is currently trading) will also rise. This means that margin calls will become ever tighter, but there will be no one there to sell to.
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